2008 United States Senate elections

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Template:Future election in the United States

Senate Seats up for election:
  Two Republican incumbents
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Democratic incumbent
  No election

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4 2008, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Thirty-three seats are regular elections; the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3 2009 until January 3 2015. The one special election is for a seat from Wyoming; the winner will serve the remainder of the term that expires on January 3 2013, part of Senate Class I.

The 2008 presidential election, gubernatorial elections, and House of Representatives elections will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.

The current composition of the Senate, going into the 2008 election, consists of 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 22 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.[1].

There may be changes to the list of incumbents below if senators die or resign. The date of a death or resignation determines if there will be a special election in 2008, and the rules vary from state to state.

Predictions

Democrats possess the field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 22. Political pundits often refer to the statewide results of the United States presidential election, 2004 to help predict subsequent Senate elections. Six of the twelve Democrats are from states won by President George W. Bush (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) while four of the twenty-two Republicans are from states won by Senator John Kerry (Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire).

In the following predictions, CQ defines "Favored" as meaning that the races are not currently competitive but could conceivably become so under the right circumstances. "Leans" means the race is competitive but the indicated party has a distinct advantage.

The table is sorted with Republican seats listed generally from least to most vulberable, while the Democratic seats are listed generally from most to least vulnerable. This leaves the most vulnerable seats from either party grouped toward the middle, so all high-risk seats can easily be seen at once. This ordering is only a guide. The precise ordering in the table must not be considered to be meaningful because it is not possible to weigh conflicting rankings by different analysts.

The incumbent's name in parentheses indicates an open seat. In the Nebraska and New Hampshire rows, the Sabato rankings predate Chuck Hagel's (R-NE) announcement that he is not seeking re-election to his senate seat and Jeanne Shaheen's announcement that she is running for John Sununu's (R-NH) senate seat.

Republican Seats
State Incumbent Sabato[1] Cook[2] CQ[3] Rothenberg[4]
KS Roberts Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
MS Cochran Solid R

Solid R Safe R Safe R
WY Barrasso Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
WY Enzi Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
AL Sessions Solid R Solid R Favored R Safe R
GA Chambliss Solid R Solid R Favored R Safe R
ID Craig Solid R Likely R Safe R Safe R
OK Inhofe Solid R Solid R Favored R Safe R
SC Graham Solid R Solid R Favored R Safe R
TN Alexander Solid R Solid R Favored R Safe R
TX Cornyn Likely R Solid R Favored R Safe R
KY McConnell Likely R Solid R Favored R Clear Advantage R
NC Dole Solid R

Likely R Favored R Clear Advantage R
AK Stevens Likely R Likely R Favored R Clear Advantage R
NM Domenici Likely R

Likely R Favored R Clear Advantage R
NE (Hagel) Solid R

Leans R Leans R Clear Advantage R
OR Smith Leans R

Likely R Leans R Narrow Advantage R
ME Collins Likely R

Leans R Leans R Narrow Advantage R
MN Coleman Leans R

Leans R No Clear Favorite Narrow Advantage R
NH Sununu Tossup

Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
CO (Allard) Tossup

Tossup No Clear Favorite Tossup
VA (Warner) Tossup

Tossup Leans D Tossup
Democratic Seats
State Incumbent Sabato Cook CQ Rothenberg
LA Landrieu Leans D

Leans D Leans D Narrow Advantage D
SD Johnson Leans D

Likely D Leans D Clear Advantage D
MT Baucus Likely D

Solid D Favored D Safe D
AR Pryor Likely D

Solid D Favored D Safe D
IA Harkin Solid D

Solid D Favored D Safe D
NJ Lautenberg Solid D

Solid D Favored D Safe D
MA Kerry Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
MI Levin Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
IL Durbin Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
DE Biden Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
WV Rockefeller Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
RI Reed Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D

Races

Retirements, and Resignations

Larry Craig (R-ID) announced on September 1, 2007, that he intended to resign as September 30; if he does, the Republican governor of Idaho will more than likely appoint a Republican to replace him.

Three senators, Wayne Allard (R-CO), John Warner (R-VA), and Chuck Hagel (R-NE), have announced their retirements.

If the bid of Joe Biden (D-DE) for the Presidential nomination is unsuccessful, he is likely run for re-election rather than retire.

Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado

Main article: Colorado United States Senate election, 2008

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard limited himself to two terms. On January 15, 2007, he formally announced he would not seek re-election. Allard has a very low approval rating, suggesting this race could have been close.

Republicans: Former U.S. Representative Bob Schaffer has announced his candidacy. Retired Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway and former governor Bill Owens have both ruled out a run.[5][6] On March 21, 2007 former Congressman Scott McInnis dropped out of the race. The strongest, best-known Republican in consideration is widely held to be State Attorney General John Suthers, a former El Paso County District Attorney. But Suthers has committed to supporting Schaffer.

Democrats: The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be U.S. Representative Mark Udall, (CO-2) who has announced that he will seek the seat and is unlikely to draw significant primary opposition.[7]

The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver.

Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska

Main article: Nebraska United States Senate election, 2008

In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel chose to retire and will not seek the 2008 Presidential nomination. This makes what was a safe Republican seat more competitive.[2]

Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning has declared his intent to run whether Hagel vacates the seat or not. While Hagel has a conservative voting record, he has broken with Bush on Iraq. Hagel has also antagonized the GOP base by supporting Bush's immigration legislation, which includes procedures for undocumented workers to apply to be U.S. citizens. Internal polling released by Bruning's campaign showed him with a 47% to 38% lead over Hagel. Former Rep. and Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is thinking of running as well. Other possible candidates are Congressman Lee Terry and Jeff Fortenberry, and Fmr. Governor and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns.

On the Democratic side, three influential senators have encouraged two-term Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey to consider a bid for the seat should Hagel decide to retire: Harry Reid (Majority Leader), Charles Schumer (DSCC Chair), and Ben Nelson (Nebraska's junior Senator).[8] Bob Kerrey, the former Senator and current president of The New School in New York City, has shown more and more interest in the race, first commissioning a poll and then agreeing to headline the state party's annual fundraising event June 23. On August 23, Kerrey announced that he believed that Senator Hagel will retire, and he had contacted the board of directors at The New School to inform them of the possibility that he might announce a return to Nebraska in the next few weeks. [9]2006 Congressional Candidate Scott Kleeb may also run.

From Omaha, Nebraska, Hagel decided to quit to live up to his earlier promise of serving only two terms. Hagel also made it clear that he does not intend to run for any other political office in 2008. [10]

John Warner (R) of Virginia

Main article: Virginia United States Senate election, 2008

John Warner announced on August 31, 2007 that he would not seek reelection for another term. [11] It was long speculated that Senator Warner was likely to retire but would not announce his decision until later in order to help the candidacy of Northern Virginia Congressman Thomas M. Davis[12]. Warner was speculated to be delaying his official retirement announcement to prevent a candidate with more conservative ideological views from winning the Republican nomination.[citation needed] This rumor was further encouraged by the fact that Davis has registered web addresses suggesting a Senate campaign [3].Other possible Republican candidates are former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the 2008 presidential election, Rep. Eric Cantor and Rep. Randy Forbes.

Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner has entered the race.[13] Early polling shows him being a strong favorite to ultimately win the seat.[14]

Larry Craig (R) of Idaho

Main article: Idaho United States Senate election, 2008

On September 1 2007, Senator Larry Craig announced his intent to resign from the Senate effective September 30 [4]. The announcement followed by just six days the disclosure that he had pleaded guilty on August 1 to a reduced misdemeanor charge arising out of his arrest on June 11 at the Minneapolis airport for soliciting sex with a man in the restroom. Craig found almost no support among Republicans in his home state or Washington. Assuming Craig does resign, the Republican governor of Idaho, Butch Otter, will name a Senator to serve until the 2008 election.[15] According to many reports, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is the leading candidate to fill Craig's senate seat.[16] If that happens, rancher and veterinarian Rex Rammell has indicated that he will challenge Risch in the primary, as Risch ordered the killing of 160 elk which escaped from Rammell's property.[17]

On the Democratic side, former Congressman and Army Veteran Larry LaRocco is the leading candidate.[18]

Possible retirement

Joe Biden (D) of Delaware

Main article: Delaware United States Senate election, 2008

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Biden has announced he is running for President.[19] Biden may run for both the Presidency and the Senate simultaneously, but may choose to retire from the Senate to focus exclusively on the Presidency.

Should Biden retire, the 2008 race would feature the first open Delaware seat since 1970, and potential Democratic candidates include State Treasurer Jack Markell or Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, Sen. Biden's son.

Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska

Main article: Alaska United States Senate election, 2008

While Senator Ted Stevens has announced he will run for re-election for a sixth term, it is possible he will reconsider. He will be 85 years old in 2008, but, more importantly, the FBI and IRS are investigating Stevens. An oil company executive that bribed many Alaskan politicians paid for construction work on Stevens personal residence.

The FBI is investigating the remodeling of Stevens home by Veco Corp. which is part of a broader corruption investigation involving Stevens' son, former Alaska Senate President Ben Stevens.[20] Two former Veco executives have plead guilty to paying the younger Stevens $242,000 in bribes.[21] On September 14, 2007, former Veco CEO Bill Allen testified at the trial of former Alaska House Speaker Pete Kott that Veco paid people working to expand (double) the size of Stevens' home[22]

Republicans have several choices in this conservative state such as : State Senate Minority Leader Gene Therriault; Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell; State Senator Lesil McGuire; State Representative Tom Anderson; State House Speaker John Harris; and State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux.

On July 30, 2007, the IRS and the FBI raided Stevens' home in Alaska. According to The Nation, the major Democratic contender is Tony Knowles, a Democrat who served as Governor of Alaska from 1995 to 2003. Knowles narrowly lost bids for the Senate in 2004 and for another term as governor in 2006. [23] Among other Democrats mentioned, "Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of popular former Democratic Congressman Nick Begich, heads the list. But it also includes Democratic legislators Eric Croft, a reformer who garnered attention when he sought the Governorship a few years back, and Ethan Berkowitz, who was the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2006. State Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis are also on the list of Democratic prospects."[24]

Democratic incumbent races

Mark Pryor of Arkansas

Main article: Arkansas United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Mark Pryor could be targeted in his first race as an incumbent. Pryor was the only Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican senator in the otherwise GOP-dominated 2002 elections. While George W. Bush won Arkansas in both 2000 and 2004, he won it by a significantly smaller margin than most of the other Southern states, and the home of the Clinton family has Democrats representing three of its four U.S. House districts, as well as Democratic senior Senator Blanche Lincoln.

Currently, the only Republican who has shown interest in challenging Pryor is former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, who lost the GOP primary for lieutenant governor in 2006 and a race for the U.S. House in 1982. If former Governor Mike Huckabee were forced out of the Republican presidential race early, he could challenge Pryor.

Current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter has angered a number of Democrats in the state because he has not denied rumors that he may challenge Pryor in a primary. Halter has not been known to have much influence, even though he defeated three seasoned state legislators to win the primary, and a significant primary challenge could damage Pryor.

Also in the race is Green Party candidate Rebekah Kennedy, who in 2006 ran for state attorney general, capturing 4.4% of the vote [5]. Kennedy could end up being a spoiler candidate.

Dick Durbin of Illinois

Main article: Illinois United States Senate election, 2008

Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in Illinois. He seeks to be reelected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. CQpolitics.com rates the contest as "safe Democrat."

Frequent candidate Anthony "Andy" Martin-Trigona, a journalist and activist lawyer, has declared his intent to run. Martin has been sanctioned in federal court for filing hundreds of lawsuits without merit. As a result of these findings, the Illinois Supreme Court denied him a law license.[25] On May 14, Steve Sauerberg, M.D. of La Grange, a political neophyte, declared his intent to seek the Republican nomination. Jim Rowe of Franklin Park (Leyden Township, Cook County) has converted the website he used to run for State Senate against Don Harmon into a website for a U.S. Senate campaign against Durbin. Rowe received less than 30% of the vote against Harmon in 2006. Sauerberg is the candidate currently supported by the Illinois Republican Party. Professional truck driver and DePaul MBA [Mike Psak]http://www.psak4ussenate.com is also seeking the Republican nomination for this office.

Tom Harkin of Iowa

Main article: Iowa United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Tom Harkin has announced he will seek re-election.[26]

Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Republican Congressman Greg Ganske. In 2006, the Democrats gained two of Iowa's U.S. House seats and won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature as well as retaining the Iowa Governor's Mansion.

As of April 2007, veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen was reporting that Harkin, having raised over $2 million, was unlikely to face a big-name Republican challenge.[27] In a subsequent article, he wrote that it was possible that wealthy propane retailer Bruce Rastetter, formerly in the hog-feeding business, was a potential candidate for Republicans [6].

Steve Rathje, a businessman from Cedar Rapids, has entered the race.

Conservative Rep. Steve King (R-IA-5) has become increasingly vocal about the proposal to pass legislation that allows immigrants in the United States illegally a path to citizenship and has recently sparred with Harkin over the issue. This has led to some speculation that King has not ruled out running.

Mary Landrieu of Louisiana

Main article: Louisiana United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Landrieu must now endure the loss of many reliable Democratic voters since Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. Lousiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004

On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican. It is rumored that he may have done so to challenge Landrieu in 2008, as he had been personally recruited by Senator Vitter and Bush administration official Karl Rove. [28] Other possible Republican candidates include U.S. Representative Richard Baker, state Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and former state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who was Landrieu's opponent in 2002.

John Kerry of Massachusetts

Main article: Massachusetts United States Senate election, 2008

Senator John Kerry will seek another Senate term in Massachusetts.[29] An August 2007 poll has Kerry's approval rating at 47%, with 45% disapproving. [7]

Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, had stated that he would run for the seat in 2008 but later changed his mind. According to a study by the Washington Post, only 37% of Massachusetts residents want Kerry to run again; 63% do not.[30] Another challenger to Kerry is Jeff Beatty, an ex-Army Delta Force officer who garnered only 30% of the vote in a challenge to Democratic Congressman William Delahunt in 2006.

Kerry is being challenged by defense attorney Edward O'Reilly for the Democratic nomination.

Carl Levin of Michigan

Main article: Michigan United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Carl Levin has announced he will seek re-election in Michigan.[31]

With the Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill in the 2006 midterm elections, Levin, as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. He is expected to easily win re-election. Republican Members of Congress Candice Miller (MI-10) and Mike J. Rogers (MI-8) have declined to challenge him. Levin's opponent in 2002, Andrew Raczkowski, has expressed interest in running again.[32] Other possible Republican candidates include state Representative Jack Hoogendyk and former Michigan First Lady Michelle Engler.

Max Baucus of Montana

Main article: Montana United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Max Baucus is a popular Democrat in Montana, representing a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to Democrats in state and local elections. President Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Montana also has a popular Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and a newly-elected Democratic junior senator, Jon Tester. Baucus is unlikely to face a significant challenge.

Rep Denny Rehberg was thought to be a potential candidate, which would have made the race a rematch of the 1996 contest, but on July 6, 2007 Rehberg announced that he would seek to remain in the House. [33] Michael Lange, the recently-ousted state House Majority Leader, announced on June 29, 2007 that he would challenge Baucus.

Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey

Main article: New Jersey United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek reelection in 2008 at the age of 84, although other Democratic politicians have also shown interest in running in New Jersey, including Congressmen Rob Andrews (NJ-1) and Rush Holt (NJ-12). It is unclear if any of these Democrats will actually challenge Lautenberg. In November, 2006, he had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[34], but his ratings have moved up considerably since then.[35]

Potential Republican candidates include Assemblyman Joseph Pennacchio [36] and real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, who likely would be supported by moderate and liberal elements within the state Republican Party.

Jack Reed of Rhode Island

Main article: Rhode Island United States Senate election, 2008

In Rhode Island, Senator Jack Reed had an approval rating of 66% in November 2006.[37] National Journal has declared that "Reed is probably the safest incumbent of the [2008] cycle."[8] Two potentially stong Republican challengers, however, would be Governor Don Carcieri, and former senator Lincoln Chafee.

Tim Johnson of South Dakota

Main article: South Dakota United States Senate election, 2008

In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson's seat could be a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Congressman and current U.S. Senator John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation and was discharged from the hospital on April 30, 2007. As of August 28, 2007, Johnson has indicated that he is running for re-election.[38] According to a November 2006 SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance,[39] making him an early favorite despite the state's Republican leaning.

Should Johnson decide not to seek reelection, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, has indicated his interest in running to keep the seat for the Democrats.[9]

Republicans are attempting to persuade Governor Mike Rounds to run, and his approval ratings are similar to Johnson's. However, when the Republicans began polling potential challengers to Johnson, Rounds was not among them. State Representative Joel Dykstra (R) announced that he was running on July 5, 2007. Rounds recently indicated that he isn't interested in challenging Johnson, but would seriously consider running if Johnson were to retire [10].

Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia

Main article: West Virginia United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Jay Rockefeller, great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, will seek a fifth term in West Virginia. Even though West Virginia is a historically Democratic state, in which the party had a 50-32% edge in party affiliation over the Republicans in the 2004 elections, the state party is more conservative than the national party, giving 30% of its votes to President George W. Bush in that election to allow him to win then and in 2000.[40]

Republican incumbent races

Jeff Sessions of Alabama

Main article: Alabama United States Senate election, 2008

In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions is running for re-election. CQpolitics.com rates the race as "Republican Favored." On January 10, 2007, U.S. Representative Artur Davis (AL-7) announced that he will not run for the seat.[41] Despite going heavily for Bush in 2004, Alabama still has a strong Democratic presence; Democrats control majorities of both chambers in the state legislature. Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks appeared to be preparing for a run, but on June 12, 2007, Sparks announced that he will not seek the Senate seat, in order to avoid a primary battle with state Senator Vivian Davis Figures.[42] Figures has won elections in the Republican-leaning Mobile area.

One Independent has already announced he will run. Johnny Swanson announced in March 2006.[11].


Saxby Chambliss of Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States Senate election, 2008

In 2002, Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss defeated Democratic incumbent Max Cleland, a decorated disabled Vietnam Veteran. Chambliss will seek reelection in 2008. As of late June 2007, Chambliss has a approval rating of 50%, with 39% disapproval rating.[12]

Democrat Vernon Jones, CEO of Dekalb County, has indicated an interest in running and is canvassing the state to determine voters' concerns. Jones is African-American and a conservative Democrat who voted for George W. Bush in 2004.[43] Veteran Atlanta investigative journalist Dale Cardwell declared his candidacy in June 2007. U.S. Representative Jim Marshall is under pressure to not run, as Democrats are worried the party would then lose his House seat (GA-8).[44] There is some speculation that former state Secretary of State Cathy Cox, a Democrat who unsuccessfully sought her party's nomination for governor in 2006, may jump into the race. Another potential candidate is wealthy Macon-based trial attorney Jim Butler, who has declined to run.[citation needed] Finally, recent speculation has centered around U.S. Representative Sanford Bishop.

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Main article: Kansas United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek re-election. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but Pat Roberts only has an approval rating of 54%.[13] The Topeka Capital Journal reports that former Congressman Jim Slattery, who served in Congress for 12 years, is considering a run against Roberts. [14] Slattery was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1994 and lost by a wide margin.Fmr. GOP House Majority Leader Joe Hoagland who recently switched to the Democratic Party may also run.

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Main article: Kentucky United States Senate election, 2008

Democrats have made Senate Minority Leader, four-term Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky a target due to his leadership of Senate Republicans and his ties to President Bush, as well as his mediocre approval rating in the state, which is below 50%.[45] Because of the 2007 Governor's race, active campaigning isn't likely to begin for McConnell's seat until the winter, though potential candidates have been reported in the press, including Charlie Owen, state Treasurer Jonathan Miller, and Attorney General Greg Stumbo. Former Attorney General and Congressman Ben Chandler (KY-6) was the top pick among national Democrats as he has won statewide recognition and was reelected in his Republican leaning district, but he has stated he will pass on the race. Though McConnell's approval ratings aren't intimidating, he has seen a lot of fundraising success, and is considered a political institution in the state, holding a lot of influence over state politics.

Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to challenge McConnell.

Andrew Horne, a Louisville attorney, and Iraq War Veteran may be considering running.[15]

Susan Collins of Maine

Main article: Maine United States Senate election, 2008

In Maine, Senator Susan Collins has informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term.[46] Collins remains very popular, with a 73% job approval rating in November 2006, and is likely to start as a strong favorite.[47] Also in Collins' favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior senator, Republican Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any GOP Senate candidate (besides the largely unopposed Indiana Republican Dick Lugar) in the 2006 election cycle. Collins was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over state senator Chellie Pingree. Sen. Joe Lieberman, citing his status as an independent, endorsed Sen. Collins in her 2008 re-election bid.

On May 8, 2007, Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) announced his candidacy on his website. He had already expressed interest in running and had been building the apparatus necessary to wage a senate campaign.[48] On the same day a poll was released by Critical Insights, an independent polling firm in Portland, ME, which showed Senator Collins as the clear early favorite, with Collins leading Allen 57 to 30 percent statewide, and another poll shows Collins with a lead of 57% to 32%.

Norm Coleman of Minnesota

Main article: Minnesota United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against former VP Walter Mondale after incumbent Paul Wellstone (D), died in an October plane crash. Minnesota politics, which had been getting less Democratic for a decade, showed signs of returning to its Democratic roots in 2004 after major gains in the state legislature and support for John Kerry by one point more than Al Gore had in 2000 (in comparison to a 3% worse showing by Kerry than Gore nationwide.) In 2006, popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar handily beat retiring Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy in a Senate race, and the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party took large majorities in the State House, gaining 19 seats, and made further gains in the state senate. Six term Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht was also defeated that year.

Comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken confirmed on the final broadcast of his radio show Air America, February 14, 2007, that he will run for the Senate seat in 2008.[49] He had publicly speculated about running for some time and in 2005, he established the Midwest Values PAC to lay the groundwork for that campaign. Attorneys Mike Ciresi and Jim Cohen have also entered the race. [16] [17]

There are also reports of the DSCC trying to recruit Rep. Tim Walz (MN-1) to run against Coleman, but he has dismissed any interest in running.

The 2008 Republican National Convention is being held in the capital city of St. Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican).

An August 2007 poll has his approval rating at 47%, with 44% disapproving.[18]

On June 12, 2007, Joe Repya announced that he is considering challenging Coleman in the Republican primary. The previous week Repya ran for election of the chair of the Minnesota GOP. He lost that election. Repya, a retired lieutenant colonel, is a pro-Iraq War activist and formerly advised Coleman on military and veterans issues in his 2002 campaign.[50] Michael Cavlan the 2006 Green Party candidate for the United States Senate is running again in 2008.

Early polling showed Coleman with a large lead over prospective Democratic opponents; however, the polls have considerably narrowed since then.[51]

Thad Cochran of Mississippi

Main article: Mississippi United States Senate election, 2008

Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran will seek re-election. Possible Democratic candidates who have been mentioned are former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who is famous for the millions he brought to Mississippi in the tobacco lawsuit, conservative Rep Gene Taylor (MS-4), and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, who narrowly lost in his re-election bid to Haley Barbour in 2003. Cochran has not faced serious opposition since he was reelected in 1984.

John Sununu of New Hampshire

Main article: New Hampshire United States Senate election, 2008

Senator John Sununu represents swing state New Hampshire, which traditionally leans Republican, but which John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won in the 2004 Presidential election and which saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections. Democrats took both of the previously Republican-held House seats, the gubernatorial race by a record margin of 48%, and majorities in the State House and Senate, giving them control of both bodies for the first time since 1874. However, New Hampshire has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1975.

A spokesman for popular Democratic Governor John Lynch said Lynch would not run for Sununu's seat in 2008.[52] Portsmouth' Mayor Steve Marchand (D) has announced his candidacy[53] and Katrina Swett (D), who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2002 and whose husband Richard Swett once served in Congress, has also announced.[54] Astronaut, Jay Buckey MD, a medical school director, and Air Force Reserve flight surgeon, is also running and his non-political background could be appealing.[55] However, Sununu's 2002 opponent, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, has decided to run and is generally held to be a far more formidable challenger.[19] An American Research Group poll shows Shaheen defeating Sununu by 54% to 38%.[56] To the delight of the Democratic Party, Shaheen has announced that she will be a candidate [20].

Pete Domenici of New Mexico

Main article: New Mexico United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Pete Domenici has declared that he will seek reelection in New Mexico. Rumors of a possible retirement have persisted due to Domenici's lack of fundraising activity, but his February campaign announcement included a fundraising schedule and confidence in his ability to raise appropriate funds.[57] Domenici would be normally expected to win re-election easily, having won his current term with the support of two out of three New Mexico voters; however, Domenici is to be investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for his role in firing U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. Domenici's role in the developing scandal has reduced the probability he will be re-elected.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez is thinking of running and is waiting to see how the controversy plays out. Former state Attorney General and 2006 congressional candidate Patricia Madrid is another speculated challenger, as is state Auditor Hector Balderas. Former U.S. Attorney John Kelly is looking at running against Domenici.[58] Kelly ran against Rep. Heather Wilson in 2000, losing by 51% to 44%. An announced candidate is Don Wiviott, a Santa Fe small businessman and real estate developer.

Two minor candidates have also expressed intent to run. Leland Lehrman, 37, edits an alternative bi-weekly newspaper in northern New Mexico. Jim Hannan, 56, is the finance director of the Community Housing Trust in Santa Fe, a group that develops affordable housing.[59]

Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina

Main article: North Carolina United States Senate election, 2008

In North Carolina, there had been rumors that Senator Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for governor, but she said in 2006 that she intends to run for re-election.[60] She is believed to be the favorite unless she faces Democratic Governor Mike Easley, who will not be running for re-election because of term limits. A Dole-Easley race would be highly competitive, but Easley has indicated that he is not interested in serving in any legislature when the DSCC attempted to recruit him for the race. A January 2007 poll showed Easley defeating Dole, 44% to 41%.[61]

There are other Democrats whose names have been mentioned, such as first lady Mary Easley, state Representative/Army Major Grier Martin, state Senator Kay Hagan, retired General Henry Hugh Shelton, state Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper. Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard H. Moore have been mentioned, but both seem sure to run for Governor in 2008 instead.[62] A Public Policy Polling poll showed Dole leading U.S. Representative Brad Miller 44% to 33%, with 22% undecided, but he announced June 25 that he would not run against her. [63]

Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma

Main article: Oklahoma United States Senate election, 2008

In Oklahoma, Senator Jim Inhofe had been quiet about his plans for 2008. A November 2006 poll put Inhofe's approval rating at 46%, with 41% disapproving of his performance.[citation needed] However, Inhofe recently announced he will seek a third term.[64] State Senator Andrew Rice and state Senator Kenneth Corn have expressed interest in challenging Inhofe.

Andrew Rice announced he will run against Inhofe, and will make a formal announcement after Labor Day.[65]

Gordon Smith of Oregon

Main article: Oregon United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon is running for a third term, and may be vulnerable.

Oregon House of Representatives Speaker Jeff Merkley[66] and Democratic consultant Steve Novick are the only announced candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Former Governor John Kitzhaber, Rep. Peter DeFazio, (OR-4) and Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR-3)[67] have declared they are not running. Businesswoman Eileen Brady[67] is reportedly considering a run.

Smith could also draw opposition from the right. He has been singled out by the Club for Growth for not doing enough to cut taxes[68]; anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore has not ruled out challenging Smith in the Republican primary.

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Main article: South Carolina United States Senate election, 2008

Senator Lindsey Graham, as a reasonably popular Republican incumbent in strongly conservative South Carolina, is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. Graham's support for a compromise immigration bill, however, has drawn an angry response from many South Carolina conservatives, which could help fuel a conservative primary challenge. Summerville businessman and "grassroots right wing conservative" John J. Cina has already launched a challenge to Graham for the Republican nomination.[69] Recently there has been talk that former state House Speaker David Wilkins, currently Ambassador to Canada, may run [21].

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Main article: Tennessee United States Senate election, 2008

Popular former Governor and U.S. Secretary of Education Lamar Alexander was elected in 2002 to succeed retiring Senator Fred Thompson. He has announced he will seek a second term in 2008.[70]

For the Democrats, a leading candidate in 2008 could be former Representative and 2006 U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford, who ran a surprisingly strong campaign in Tennessee in 2006. In December 2006, Ford said that he was planning to run for Alexander's seat, but in January 2007 he said that he then had no such plan.[71][72] Businessman Mike McWherter, son of Alexander's gubernatorial successor Ned McWherter, has met with Tennessee Democratic Party chair Gray Sasser and members of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to discuss a possible senate candidacy.[73]

Campaign finance reform activist and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker will likely run for the seat, either in the Democratic Primary or as an independent in the general election. He has not, however, been considered a serious candidate since he lost the 1976 senatorial primary to Jim Sasser. His many recent statewide campaigns have been seen merely as excuses for him to file lawsuits against the opposing candidates for supposedly-unethical campaigan fundraising practices and to promote his own campaign finance reform efforts.

John Cornyn of Texas

Main article: Texas United States Senate election, 2008

Senator John Cornyn has a 42% job approval rating as of June 2007. Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994. Possible Democratic candidates include state representative and Afghanistan War Veteran Rick Noriega, former state Comptroller John Sharp, and wealthy San Antonio trial attorney Mikal Watts. Congressman Nick Lampson was thought to be a candidate, but will run for re-election to the U.S. House, not election to the Senate.[74] In June 2007 Watts formed an exploratory committee.

John Barrasso of Wyoming

Main article: Wyoming United States Senate elections, 2008

John Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on June 22 2007 to fill the senate seat of Craig L. Thomas, who died on June 4.[75] Wyoming law requires that the interim senator be affiliated with the same political party as the departed senator. As Thomas was a Republican, the state's Republican central committee was to provide three names to Governor Freudenthal within two weeks, and the governor then had five days to appoint a person from that list to act as interim Senator. The number of applicants for the vacant senate seat was 31.[76] The state Republican central committee met to choose the three nominees on Tuesday, June 19; they selected Assistant U.S. Attorney General Tom Sansonetti, state senator Barrasso and former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis.[77] Senator Barrasso will serve until a special election which will be held, concurrent with the regular 2008 election, to fill the remainder of Thomas' term, which ends in January 2013.[78] Barrasso is expected to run in the Republican primary prior to that election. Of the two finalists who were not chosen, Sansonetti has vowed not to challenge Barrasso while Lummis hasn't ruled out running.[79] Former U.S. attorney Matt Mead, who resigned (as required by the Hatch Act of 1939) to unsuccessfully apply for interim senator, chose not to reapply for his old U.S. attorney position so he may challenge Barrasso in the Republican primary.[80]

Possible Democratic candidates for the seat include Governor Dave Freudenthal and 2006 Congressional candidate Gary Trauner.

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

Main article: Wyoming United States Senate elections, 2008

Senator Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition for a third term in strongly Republican Wyoming.

Summary table

State Incumbent Status Possible opposing candidates 2002 Election Results[81]
Alabama Jeff Sessions (R) Running for Re-election Vivian Davis Figures (D)
Pete Johnson (D) 		Jeff Sessions (R) 59%; Susan Parker (D) 40%; Other 1%
Alaska Ted Stevens (R) Mark Begich (D)
Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Rocky Caldero (D) 		Ted Stevens (R) 78% ; Frank J. Vondersaar (D) 11%; Jim Sykes (G) 8%; Other 3%
Arkansas Mark Pryor (D) Running for Re-election Chuck Banks (R)
Rebekah Kennedy (G)
 Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%; Mark Pryor (D) 54%
Colorado Wayne Allard (R) Retiring Bob Schaffer (R)
Mark Udall (D) 		Wayne Allard (R) 51%; Tom Strickland (D) 46%; Other 3%
Delaware Joe Biden (D) Running for President Michael Castle (R) Joe Biden (D) 58%; Raymond J. Clatworthy (R) 41%; Other 1%
Georgia Saxby Chambliss (R) Running for Re-election Thurbert Baker (D)
Sanford Bishop (D)
Dale Cardwell (D)
Vernon Jones (D)
Rand Knight (D) 		Max Cleland (D) 46%; Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%; Other 1%
Idaho Larry Craig (R) Possibly Resigning or Retiring Rex Rammell (R)
Jim Risch (R)
Larry LaRocco (D) 		Larry Craig (R) 65%; Alan Blinken (D) 33%; Donovan Bramwell (L) 2%
Illinois Dick Durbin (D) Running for Re-election Bill Brady (R)
Norm Hill (R)
Andy Martin (R)
Mike Psak (R)
Jim Rowe (R)
Steve Sauerberg (R) 		Dick Durbin (D) 60%; Jim Durkin (R) 38%; Other 2%
Iowa Tom Harkin (D) Running for Re-election Steve King (R)
Tom Latham (R)
Bob McDowell (R)
Bruce Rastetter (R)
Steve Rathje (R) 		Tom Harkin (D) 54%; Greg Ganske (R) 44%; Other 2%
Kansas Pat Roberts (R) Running for Re-election Steve Boyda (D)
Jim Slattery (D) 		Pat Roberts (R) 83%; Steven A. Rosile (L) 9%; George Cook (Reform) 8%
Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R) Running for Re-election Andrew Horne (D)
Charlie Owen (D)
Greg Stumbo (D) 		Mitch McConnell (R) 65%; Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35%
Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D) Running for Re-election Richard Baker (R)
Jay Dardenne (R)
Woody Jenkins (R)
John N. Kennedy (R)
Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 		Mary Landrieu (D) 52%; Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48%
Maine Susan Collins (R) Running for Re-election Tom Allen (D) Susan Collins (R) 58%; Chellie Pingree (D) 42%
Massachusetts John Kerry (D) Running for Re-election Ed O'Reilly (D)
Jeff Beatty (R)
Peter Blute (R)
Scott P. Brown (R) 		John Kerry (D) 80%; Michael E. Cloud (L) 18%; Others 2%
Michigan Carl Levin (D) Running for Re-election Andrew Raczkowski (R) Carl Levin (D) 60%; Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%; Other 2%
Minnesota Norm Coleman (R) Running for Re-election Joe Repya (R)
Mike Ciresi (DFL)
Jim Cohen (DFL)
Al Franken (DFL)
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (DFL)
Michael Cavlan (G) 		Norm Coleman (R) 50%; Walter Mondale (D) 47%; Other 3%
Mississippi Thad Cochran (R) Running for Re-election Chip Pickering (R)
Amy Tuck (R)
Roger Wicker (R)
Mike Moore (D) 		Thad Cochran (R) 85%; Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15%
Montana Max Baucus (D) Running for Re-election Bob Keenan (R)
Mike Lange (R)
Scott Sales (R) 		Max Baucus (D) 63%; Mike Taylor (R) 32%; Other 5%
Nebraska Chuck Hagel (R) Retiring Jon Bruning (R)
Hal Daub (R)
Mike Johanns (R)
Tony Raimondo (R)
Mike Fahey (D)
Bob Kerrey (D)
Scott Kleeb (D) 		Chuck Hagel (R) 83%; Charlie A. Matulka (D) 15%; Other 2%
New Hampshire John Sununu (R) Running for Re-election Jay Buckey (D)
Steve Marchand (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Katrina Swett (D) 		John Sununu (R) 51%; Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46%; Other 3%
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D) Running for Re-election Bill Baroni (R)
Anne Evans Estabrook (R)
Tom Kean Jr. (R)
Joseph Pennacchio (R)
Anthony Fisher (I) 		Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%; Douglas R. Forrester (R) 44%; Other 2%
New Mexico Pete Domenici (R) Running for Re-election Martin Chavez (D)
Jim Hannan (D)
Leland Lehrman (D)
Patricia Madrid (D)
Tom Udall (D)
Don Wiviott (D) 		Pete Domenici (R) 65%; Gloria Tristani (D) 35%
North Carolina Elizabeth Dole (R) Running for Re-election Roy A. Cooper (D)
Kay Hagan (D)
Grier Martin (D) 		Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%; Erskine Bowles (D) 45%; Other 1%
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe (R) Running for Re-election Kenneth Corn (D)
Andrew Rice (D) 		Jim Inhofe (R) 57%; David Walters (D) 36%; James Germalic Independent 6%; Other 1%
Oregon Gordon Smith (R) Running for Re-election Bill Sizemore (R)
Eileen Brady (D)
Pavel Goberman (D)
Jeff Merkley (D)
Steve Novick (D)
John Frohnmayer (I) 		Gordon Smith (R) 56%; Bill Bradbury (D) 40%; Other 4%
Rhode Island Jack Reed (D) Running for Re-election Jack Reed (D) 78%; Robert G. Tingle (R) 22%
South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R) Running for Re-election Robert Barber (D)
Tom Turnipseed (D) 		Lindsey Graham (R) 54%; Alex Sanders (D) 44%; Other 2%
South Dakota Tim Johnson (D) Running for Re-election Joel Dykstra (R)
Sam Kephart (R)
Mike Rounds (R) 		Tim Johnson (D) 50%; John R. Thune (R) 49%; Other 1%
Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R) Running for Re-election Harold Ford Jr. (D)
Mike McWherter (D)
Bill Purcell (D)
David Gatchell (I)
Emory "Bo" Heyward (I)
John Jay Hooker (I)
 Lamar Alexander (R) 54%; Bob Clement (D) 44%; Other 2%
Texas John Cornyn (R) Running for Re-election Ron Kirk (D)
Rick Noriega (D)
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D)
John Sharp (D)
Kirk Watson (D)
Mikal Watts (D)
Mark White (D) 		John Cornyn (R) 55%; Ron Kirk (D) 43%; Other 2%
Virginia John Warner (R) Retiring George Allen (R)
Tom Davis (R)
Jim Gilmore (R)
Don Beyer (D)
Rick Boucher (D)
R. Creigh Deeds (D)
Claudia Kennedy (D)
Brian Moran (D)
Mark Warner (D) 		John Warner (R) 83%; Nancy Spannaus (Independent) 10%; Jacob G. Hornberger, Jr. (Independent) 7%
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D) Running for Re-election Betty Ireland (R)
John Raese (R) 		Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%; Jay Wolfe (R) 37%
Wyoming Mike Enzi (R) Running for Re-election Mike Enzi (R) 73%; Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27%
Wyoming (Special) John A. Barrasso (R) Running for election Cynthia Lummis (R)
Matt Mead (R)
Colin Simpson (R)
Gary Trauner (D) 		2006: Craig L. Thomas (R) 70%; Dale Groutage (D) 30%
State Incumbent Status Possible opposing candidates 2002 Election Results

See also

References

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External links

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