2006 United States House of Representatives elections

Template:Future election Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Major parties

The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, and 1 Independent. There are two seats vacant, those representing California's 50th district and New Jersey's 13th district; the first will be filled in a special election before the 2006 election, but the second will remain vacant. The Democrats would need to pick up 16 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995.

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed below, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances listed above.

Open seats

There are currently 27 seats where an incumbent will not be seeking re-election. There are also 2 vacant seats. One of them will be filled before the general election, while one will be vacant until the next Congress. Of the 27 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 7 are held by Democrats, and 1 is held by an independent. The vacant seat which will be filled before the general election was held by a Republican and the other vacant seat was held by a Democrat.

Arizona

• Arizona's eighth district — Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 . His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for 2 decades, often with high margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a social conservative stronghold. Ex-Air Force fighter pilot Jeff Latas is running for the seat as a Democrat. Republican Randy Graf, a former State Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running. Kolbe's recent exit means that other candidates besides Graf and Latas will take advantage of the opportunity to enter the race, such as Democratic former State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1 2005 in preparation for a Congressional campaign.

California

• California's twenty-second district — Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy has announced his run for the GOP nomination. McCarthy is very popular in the Central Valley.

• California's twenty-fourth district — Incumbent Elton Gallegly (R) announced his retirement just hours before the filing deadline to be on the ballot passed in his state, much to the shock of the local political establishment. The 62 year old ten term congressman cited "unresolved health issues" for his decision. It is unclear how Republicans will be able to handle the retirement in this district, which Gallegly handily won with 60 percent of the vote last election and in 2004 went to George Bush 56-44. The district covers inland areas of Santa Barbara County and Ventura County in the Los Angeles suburbs, including Thousand Oaks, California. Local election law prohibits Gallegly from withdrawing from the primary after he has filed candidacy papers, so it is assumed that (barring a huge upset by unknown Michael Tenenbaum) Gallegly will renounce his nomination when he wins his party's primary, effectively removing himself from the race. Local election law does allow a replacement to be chosen in the event that a candidate retires after he receives his nomination. Businesswoman Mary Pallant and Rev. Jill Martinez have filed on the Democrats' side, making it possible that if the GOP is unable to find a strong candidate for the race, the seat may change party affiliation in November.

• California's fiftieth district — (Technically, this is not a retiring representative's seat: by November 7, 2006, there should be an incumbent representative.) Following ethical questions about Republican Duke Cunningham's dealings with a defense contractor, Cunningham announced on July 14 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. Later, on November 28 2005, he resigned his house seat after confessing to taking more than $2.4 million in bribes from the defense contractor. A special election to fill the vacancy will be held on April 11 2006. The winner of that election will likely then vie for their first complete term in the 2006 elections. This district includes the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican. Candidates include on the Republican side former State Assemblymen Howard Kaloogian, State Senator Bill Morrow, Brian Bilbray, and businessman Alan Uke. The Democrats currently have college professor Francine Busby running. Busby garnered 37% against Cunningham's 58% in 2004.

Colorado

• Colorado's fifth district — Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16, 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term, despite multiple calls from the White House to do so, forcing Republicans to spend money defending what was, previously, a safe seat in the house. Former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson is the only declared Republican candidate thus far in the race. Democrat Jay Fawcett, who served 20 years in the Air Force and fought in the 1991 Gulf War, is the first Democrat to announce that he is running. Because of the conservative nature of the district, which President Bush won by 30 points in 2004, it is largely believed that the winner of the Republican primary will emerge victorious in the general election.

• Colorado's seventh district — Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but his retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat very competitive again. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell leads early polls for the Republicans, while former State Senator Ed Perlmutter leads on the Democratic side.

Florida

• Florida's ninth district — Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, but few expect this seat to be competitive as it is a heavily Republican district located on Florida's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirikas, has announced that he will run for his father's seat and appears to be the front runner. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee.

• Florida's eleventh district — Incumbent Jim Davis (D) is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains heavily Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller and Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor have announced that they will run for the seat.

• Florida's thirteenth district — Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) — is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006, and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota. Harris won reelection in 2004 with 55% of the vote. State Representative Nancy Detert, banker George "Tramm" Hudson, and automobile dealer Vern Buchanan are running for the Republican nomination. Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings is running for the Democratic nomination.

Hawaii

• Hawaii's second district — In a surprise move, Rep. Ed Case announced in January of 2006 that he would challenge Daniel Akaka for the Democratic nomination for Senate. This opens up his Democratic-leaning seat, which includes Kauai, Maui, The Big Island, and part of Honolulu.

Idaho

• Idaho's first district — Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for governor, and his seat is expected to be safe for any Republican. The district contains more or less the north and western portions of the state and is almost 70% Republican. Former Congressional staffer Norm Semanko, State Controller Keith Johnson, former state Senator Sheila Sorensen, Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez, and state Senator Skip Brandt are among Republicans competing for the seat. Attorney Larry Grant and North Idaho businessman Cecil Kelly are running on the Democratic side.

Illinois

• Illinois's sixth district — Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Christine Cegelis, who mustered 44% of the vote when running against him in 2004, plans to run again as a Democrat, as does Iraq war veteran L. Tammy Duckworth and Wheaton College professor Lindy Scott. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength has grown in the district in recent years.

Iowa

• Iowa's first district — Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque and Clinton. State Representative Bill Dix, businessman Mike Whalen, and former state party chairman Brian Kennedy (politician) are running as Republicans, while attorney Bruce Braley and others are running as Democrats. Democrat Bill Gluba ran three separate times against Nussle, garnering larger percentages of the vote with each election. Nussle won reelection in 2004 with 55% of the vote, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

• Maryland's third district — Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. The Democratic field is already crowded, with a number of candidates, including lawyer and retired Army officer Mishonda Baldwin, former WMAR newscaster Andy Barth, former Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Peter Beilenson, businessman and former Maryland Democratic Party Treasurer Oz Bengur, State Senator Paula Hollinger, lobbyist Kevin O'Keefe, and Baltimore attorney John Sarbanes, son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes. No Republicans have announced their intention to run yet, so this seat is expected to remain Democratic. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis.

Minnesota

• Minnesota's sixth district — Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. Republican candidates for the House seat include State Representatives Jim Knoblach and Phil Krinkie State Senator Michele Bachmann and St. Cloud buisnessman Jay Esmay. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the Senate instead; then dropped out of the Senate race and launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. The other current Democratic candidate for MN-6 is Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister. A third candidate, Scott Mortensen, an Internet auto sales manager and a former assistant minister, dropped out of the race by March 2006. Tinklenberg is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which called this one of their best opportunities to pick up a House seat - although Tinklenberg, who served as Minnesota's transportation commissioner under independent Jesse Ventura, notoriously makes little if any reference to the Democratic party in his campaign. Tinklenberg entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties.

• Minnesota's fifth district Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic, and while the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[1]

Nebraska

• Nebraska's third district — Incumbent Tom Osborne (R) is running for governor, not for Democrat Ben Nelson's Senate seat as many Republicans had hoped. His district, covering western Nebraska, is strongly Republican. Those running for the open seat include several Republicans: congressional aide John Hanson, substitute teacher Douglas Polk, Nebraska legislator Adrian Smith, and Grand Island mayor Jay Vavricek. One Democrat, rancher Scott Kleeb, is also running for the seat. It is unlikely this district will change hands, as Osborne garnered a landslide 87% of the vote in 2004 and it has been in Republican hands for all but two years since 1935.

Nevada

• Nevada's second district — Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, State Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, has expressed interest in running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller and Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. On the Democratic side, Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, is running unopposed.

New Jersey

• New Jersey's thirteenth district — Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City and Hoboken is heavily Democratic and the next Congressman will probably be chosen in the Democratic primary. Assemblyman Joseph Vas and State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires are expected to run in this primary.

New York

• New York's eleventh district — Incumbent Major Owens (D) is retiring after 12 terms. In 2004 Owens was reelected with a staggering 94% of the vote. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City in the center of Brooklyn. His son Chris Owens is seeking the seat, but so are state Assemblyman Nick Perry, state Senator Carl Andrews, and New York City Councilmen Yvette Clarke and David Yassky.

• New York's twenty-forth district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. [2]

Ohio

• Ohio's fourth district — Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not had a Democrat represent the Area since 1937, however with the recent "Coingate" scandal crippling the party and the fact Oxley was held under 60% suggests this could be a competitive race. Republican state Senator Jim Jordan and Richland County Commissioner Ed Olson are the only announced candidates for the open seat.

• Ohio's sixth district — Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) is running for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be competitive. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel is planning to run and Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson will have to wage a write-in campaign after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition.

• Ohio's thirteenth district — Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is challenging Republican Senator Mike DeWine. His district, in the Lorain/Akron area, has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. Democrats who have announced include former Congressman Tom Sawyer and former state Representative Betty Sutton. Capri Cafaro and Elyria mayer Bill Grace are two other likely Democrats to enter the race. The only announced Republican candidate is businessman Joe Ortega. Capri has announced that she will enter the race, and has been endorsed by the National Rifle Association.

Oklahoma

• Oklahoma's fifth district — Incumbent Ernest Istook (R) is retiring to run for governor against Democrat Brad Henry. This district includes Oklahoma, Pottawatomie, and Seminole Counties in central Oklahoma. Republicans planning to run include Lt. Governor Mary Fallin, state Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode, and state Representative Fred Morgan.

Tennessee

• Tennessee's first district — Incumbent Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring after 5 terms in office. The district, located in eastern Tennessee, is considered to be a safe Republican seat considering that George W. Bush won 68% of the vote in 2004 and that it has been held by a Republican (except for two terms in the 1870s) since in the 1860s. Three Republicans have officially announced that they are seeking to replace Jenkins: State Representative David Davis of Johnson City, former Johnson City Mayor Vance Cheek [3], and Sullivan County Mayor Richard Venable.

• Tennessee's ninth district — Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

Vermont

• Vermont's at large district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Sanders is very popular in the state, and his seat should remain in either Independent or Democratic hands, as Vermont voted for John Kerry 59% to 40% over George W. Bush in 2004. Vermont State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welsh (D-Windsor County) and Martha Rainville (R), adjutant general of the Vermont National Guard, are vying for the seat. Also campaigning for the seat is Republican businessman Dennis Morrisseau, who has promised to bring articles of impeachment against President George W. Bush, something that may heavily complicate matters in both the Republican primary, if he wins, or in the general election, if he loses and decides to run as an independent.

Wisconsin

• Wisconsin's eighth district — Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. Assembly Speaker John Gard and Assemblywoman Terri McCormick are seeking the seat as a Republicans; businessman Jamie Wall, former De Pere Mayor Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, and physician Steve Kagen are seeking the seat as Democrats.

Notable incumbent races

It is not clear which incumbents will face difficult or close races. However, based on the results of 2004, one can make a few projections.

There are districts where incumbents may be vulnerable. These include:

Arizona

• Arizona's first district - Incumbent Rick Renzi is well-known for his strong, arguably extreme conservative positions in a district that is moderately conservative at best. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, reelected by just 6,000 votes. The Federal Election Commission has concluded that he used illegal funds to finance his 2004 reelection campaign, and he is currently under investigation for contracts he steered towards his father's defense company in Arizona. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder, an incident the media reported that Renzi had "choked" Kirk during. Both congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom Delay's ARMPAC. Due to these, Citizens For Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has labeled Renzi the most corrupt member of the House of Representatives.

California

• California's eleventh district — Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act; the considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environment may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Additionally, Pombo will be challenged for the Republican nomination by former Rep. Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley well east of the San Francisco Bay Area and leans Republican.

• California's twenty-sixth district - Incumbent David Dreier (R) was largely considered a political moderate until recent years, in which he drifted sharply to the right in pursuit of a higher position in Republican House leadership, but was ultimately passed over due to rumors of his widely perceived homosexuality, which he has not denied; he was formally outed in 2004 by Doug Ireland in the L.A. Weekly. Due to these rumors and his abandonment of his previously moderate positions, his electoral margins have thinned significantly, and he won only 54% of the vote in 2004 against an openly homosexual Democratic candidate whose rhetoric was denounced by the national democratic party when she chastised Dreier for not coming out. He is expected to face a strong conservative challenge in his primary by anti-immigration candidates and his appeal to his more conservative constituents is in question.

• California's forty-first district — Longtime incumbent Jerry Lewis (R) won reelection in 2004 by a very comfortable 83 to 17% margin -to Libertarian Peymon Mottahedeh. Because of possible misconduct as Appropriations Committee Chair, Democrats are focusing more on this district as they attempt to link Lewis closer to the Abramoff scandal. As of now, Lewis faces a challenge from Democrat, Louis Contreras in 2006 who is the only Democrat who has filed for candidacy. The 41st district is centered in the Inland Empire, includes Apple Valley, California and Redlands, California and stretches across the Mojave Desert to the border with Nevada and Arizona. It leans strongly Republican.

Colorado

• Colorado's third district — Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50-47 margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican Businessman Scott Tipton is planning to run.

• Colorado's fourth district — Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R), a very conservative Republican who was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment, won a surprisingly close 51-44 reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district. Her district consists of all of Eastern Colorado well east of Denver and northeastern Colorado around Fort Collins and Loveland. Her opponent is state Representative Angie Paccione.

• Colorado's sixth district - Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has spent the last two years making numerous controversial statements and taking stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be liberal ex-marine Bill Winter. Tancredo's chances at reelection may be severely damaged by his verbal gaffes which have alienated many on the left or center, when he said the United States should consider "taking out" Mecca if struck by another terrorist attack, and also Republican leadership by harshly criticizing George W. Bush's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House. The position of GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous, and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him simply to retain the seat remains uncertain.

Connecticut

• Connecticut's second district — Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) won reelection with 54% of the vote in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. 2002 nominee Joe Courtney is planning another run.
• Connecticut's fourth district — Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. 2004 nominee Diane Farrell is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election. However, no other Republican as yet has announced an intention to run.

• Connecticut's fifth district — Although Incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge in 2002 where she won with just 54%, she is still a Republican in an increasingly Democratic leaning district. John Kerry won the district in 2004 and Al Gore won it when it she represented the 6th District in 2000.

Florida

• Florida's twenty-second district — Incumbent Clay Shaw (R) has been elected to twelve terms in the house and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970's. He is seeking reelection to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from state Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats - this time, State Senator Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close, as Klein is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush by a margin of 51-49. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election.

Georgia

• Georgia's third and twelfth districts — Should a Republican mid-decade redistricting effort go through in Georgia, two Democrats, Jim Marshall of the 3rd District (in middle Georgia) and John Barrow of the 12th District (in eastern Georgia), could face tough races. Marshall's district becomes much more Republican under the new redistricting map, while Barrow's becomes slightly more so.

Illinois

• Illinois's eighth district — Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. A large field of Republican candidates are planning to run against her.

• Illinois's tenth district — Although reliably Republican in past elections, this district, located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County, along Lake Michigan, voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004 which makes re-election a challenge for Incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean's win in the nearby 8th Congressional District, which is more Republican. Democratic candidates may include medical malpractice attorney Zane Smith, GE Commercial Finance Director of Marketing Dan Seals, public advocacy attoney Clint Krislov, Jay Footlick, a former advisor on Middle Eastern affairs to President Clinton, and Schoolteacher Barry Bradford has won numerous teaching awards, is an evangelical and a moderate.

Indiana

• Indiana's eighth district — John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. A recent poll has Ellsworth leading Hostettler 44% to 41%. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that leans moderately Republican Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[4]

• Indiana's ninth district — Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004. Hill has annouced he hopes to reclaim his seat. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district.

• Indiana's second district - Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by 50-46%. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame his 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party allowing Chocola to outspend Donnelly 2-1. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting a concern from Republicans that Chocola is vulnerable.

Iowa

• Iowa's second district — Incumbent Jim Leach (R) is one of the most liberal Republicans in the House of Representatives; his district is considered to be a target as it is known be Democratic-leaning.
• Iowa's third district — Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close reelection in 2004 in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jim Lamberti plans to challenge him. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems, and his breaking a term-limit pledge he made when he first ran for office could factor into the race.

Kansas

• Kansas's third district — Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won a solid reelection in 2004, but the 3rd District also voted for George W. Bush. Banker Chuck Ahner plans to challenge Moore in 2006, and with this Republican leaning district, Ahner could pull off the upset.

• Kansas's second district - Incumbent Jim Ryun won reelection by 56% of the vote in a state that went for George W. Bush in a landslide in the last presidential election. He will probably face off against his previous Democratic opponent, Nancy Boyda, in November 2006.

Kentucky

• Kentucky's second district — Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state representative Mike Weaver, whose background in business and the military make it hard to portray him as a liberal.

• Kentucky's third district — Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2000 Al Gore won her congressional district very easily. Although she did win with 60% in 2004, it was mostly because Democrats did not pour enough money into the race. Her 2006 opponent is Persian Gulf War and Iraq War veteran Andrew Horne.

• Kentucky's fourth district — First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by Democratic ex-Rep. Ken Lucas, who held the seat previously to Davis. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House.

• Kentucky's sixth district — Strong victories in a 2003 special election to fill the Congressional seat of now-Governor Ernie Fletcher and in the 2004 election make Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) difficult to beat in a district known for supporting incumbency. Chandler could face difficulty, however, if speculation increases that he may pursue being Governor of Kentucky in 2007.

Louisiana

• Louisiana's third district — In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His district is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished third in the 2004 race.

• Louisiana's seventh district — Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita, and it is not known how many voters have temporarily – or permanently – moved elsewhere.

Michigan

• Michigan's ninth district — Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by over a 10 to one ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than impressive. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. As of yet, the only candidate for the Democratic nomination to have a website is Rhonda Ross, a resident of Royal Oak, Michigan (http://www.ross4congress.org). John Ashcraft of Troy, Michigan has also filed to run. Ashcraft's experience in automotive marketing has helped him to raise more money than other candidates in the race.

Minnesota

• Minnesota's second district — Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%, but things will likely be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence is already garnering media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). Teresa Daly, who was the Democratic candidate against Kline in 2004, has not yet commented on whether she would run again. Daly's 2004 campaign manager responded to Rowley's announced candidacy by saying he "would not be surprised" if Daly decided to run again; however, at a post-election farewell soiree for her campaign workers in 2004, in private conversation, Daly suggested she felt disinclined to make another attempt. Veteran state legislator Sharon Marko launched a campaign for the Democratic primary in February 2006.

Montana

• Montana's at-large district — Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party as it elected a Democratic Governor and also handed control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats in 2004. He will be opposed by state Representative Monica Lindeen. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact Montana's Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race in 2006. There is also speculation that Burns will drop his reelection bid, due to bad publicity regarding his ties to indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Should that happen, many expect Rehberg will run for the Senate to succeed Burns.

Nebraska

• Nebraska's first district - Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (R) won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressmen Doug Bereuter whom was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to congress by margins of 60% - 65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A green party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Former Nebraska lieutenant governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January, 2006 to challenge Fortenberry.[5]

Nevada

• Nevada's third district — Incumbent Jon Porter (R) Porter has won by comfortable margins. But this district, based in the Las Vegas suburbs, is very marginal and Democrats haven't given up on winning here. He is being challenged by chiropracter Barry Michaels, Clark County District Judge Nancy Saitta is thinking of running, as is Tessa Hafen, former press secretary to Senator Harry Reid.

New Jersey

• New Jersey's second district — Frank LoBiondo (R) won with 65% of the vote last time, however, he had broken a pledge made back in 1994 that he would only serve 6 terms. Also, two of the Democratic pickups in the 2005 assembly race were in districts entirely contained within LoBiondo's district as well as Corzine's landslide victory in several major counties located entirely within the 2nd makes for a potentially competitive race. Robin Benjamin Weinstein, a clergyman and a legislative aide, is running against him. Lobiondo has also received money from convicted lobbyists Jack Abramoff and Michael Scanlon.

• New Jersey's third district — Jim Saxton (R) won with 63% of the vote in the 2004 election. However, Saxton has received money from corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which could be used against him. Richard Sexton (D) is the frontrunner to face Saxton.

• New Jersey's fifth district — Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in a normally Republican district. His extreme right-wing political views have also been the subject of much controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina Victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garret is also facing a primary challenge against Michael Cino.

• New Jersey's seventh district — Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to some controversial contraceptives may become controversial in a district that voted for John Kerry in 2004. State assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) will challenge Ferguson in 2006.

New Mexico

• New Mexico's first district — Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed narrow reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 10% margin. But in 2006 she will likely face Democrat Patricia Madrid, who is barred from seeking a third term as New Mexico's Attorney General. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive and was won by John Kerry.

New York

• New York's third district — Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. His positions are consistently conservative in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislators David Mejias and David Denenberg are considering running, and they would be King's strongest challenge in years.

• New York's twenty-sixth district — Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign

• New York's twenty-seventh district — In 2004, incumbent Brian Higgins (D) edged his Republican challenger, Erie County Controller Nancy Naples, by 51% to 49% to replace retiring moderate Republican Congressman Jack Quinn. Republicans look to take back what is a marginally Democratic district with the former Congressman's son Jack Quinn III, who in 2004 was elected as a State Assemblyman. However, Quinn III doesn't have the ties to organized labor his father had, and therefore pulling off the upset in his Democratic district will be tough. Additionally, Republican efforts to court former Buffalo Bills Quarterback Jim Kelly to run seem unlikely to succeed.

• New York's twenty-ninth district — Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. There have been rumors that Kuhl is considering not running for re-election; however, as of early 2006, these have proven unsubstantiated.

North Carolina

• North Carolina's third district — Walter B. Jones (R) won 71% of the vote in 2004, but will be an interesting race to watch in 2006 as he has gone from having French fries referred to as "freedom fries" in House cafeteria menus as a protest against French opposition to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, to calling on President George W. Bush to apologize for misinforming Congress to win authorization for the war. Jones said, "If I had known then what I know today, I wouldn't have voted for that resolution." On June 16, 2005, he joined with three other Congressmembers (Neil Abercrombie, Dennis Kucinich, and Ron Paul) in introducing a resolution calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq to begin by October 2006.

• North Carolina's eighth district — Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. However, his opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% to 44% is a remarkably narrow margin. His district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. An issue might be made of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district. Hayes vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Iraq War veteran Tim Dunn will face off against him in 2006.

• North Carolina's eleventh district — Charles H. Taylor (R) won with 55% of the vote in 2004. He will face much tougher competition from former professional quarterback Heath Shuler (D) in 2006. So far things are not looking good for him, with Shuler outraising him by over a hundred thousands of dollars so far, and he has been dogged by ethical scandals in his fundraising team. His district consists of the North Carolina Panhandle around Asheville.

Ohio

• Ohio's first district — Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) was part of 1994's Republican Revolution, when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley, who challenged him in 2000. Chabot has fought off well-financed challenges in the past, but the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft nearly elected a Democrat in the far more Republican 2nd. District, which borders this one. The first district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past.

• Ohio's second district — This district is traditionally Republican, and has been estimated as the 57th safest Republican seat in the country. Yet in a special election in 2005, Jean Schmidt (R) won by 3.5% against a strong challenge by Democrat Paul Hackett. The surprisingly narrow margin in a race many took for granted at the outset may make her re-election tougher than normal. Her remarks in the House suggesting that long-time Democratic hawk and war veteran John Murtha is a coward will likely be used against her on the campaign trail. Support for a Democrat may continue to gain momentum in the continuing fallout from the Coingate scandal embroiling the Ohio Republican establishment. She is being challenged in the Republican primary by former U.S. Rep. Bob McEwen. Ohio, which went for George W. Bush in 2004, currently holds a 60% disapproval rate for the president, the highest disapproval rate for any of the so-called red states, which may hurt a visible Republican representative like Schmidt. Rep. Schmidt was also criticized for implying on her website that she had been endorsed by Rep. Steve Chabot and Rep. Tom Tancredo. Both denied that they offer their endorsement.

• Ohio's fifteenth district — This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R) has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps her close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date. Pryce is also the Chair of the Republican Conference.

• Ohio's eighteenth district — Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won his district since 1994, it is believed Democrats are targeting him for defeat due to his less than stellar ethics record. He faces a strong challenger in Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer, a former state Representative and Vietnam War veteran. He's also admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal and has been identified as the unnamed represenitive implicated by Abramoff's plea bargain.

Oklahoma

• Oklahoma's fourth district - Incumbent Tom Cole did not face a Democratic challenger in 2004, and fended off Libertarian opponent with 78% - 22%. During the 2004 election, he faced criticism for suggesting that replacing the President during wartime would be a victory for Osama bin Laden and similarly comparing the election to 1944.[6]

Pennsylvania

• Pennsylvania's sixth district — Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over 30,000 dollars he has received for his campaigns from former majority leader Tom Delay's ARMPAC, which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Most criticism has come from the fact the Gerlach has not donated the disputed money to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if Delay is convicted.

• Pennsylvania's seventh district - Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak(D).

• Pennsylvania's eighth district — Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is politically moderate and even slightly Democratic. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia Schrader by a margin of 55% - 44%. His views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War veteran, airforce pilot Patrick Murphy has announced his candidacy and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than his 2004 counterpart, Ginny Schrader. Former Bucks County Commissioner Andrew Warren is also running.

• Pennsylvania's tenth district — Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in a sex scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a 5.5 million dollar lawsuit. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. Democrat Chris Carney is currently the first congressional opponent he has faced in six years.

• Pennsylvania's eleventh district —Paul Kanjorski (D) ran unopposed in 2004, but in 2002 faced his toughest race yet. Republicans may pose a serious challenge to this seat as John Kerry only won his traditionally Democratic district with 52% of the vote.

• Pennsylvania's thirteenth district — Allyson Schwartz (D) is a freshman Congressman, and won her first election with 56% of the vote. Former Apprentice contestant Raj Bhakta will be her opponent, adding a hint of celebrity to the race.

South Carolina

• South Carolina's fifth district — John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman.

South Dakota

• South Dakota's at large district — Stephanie Herseth (D) was elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and again in the 2004 general election, but owing to South Dakota's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of fellow Democrat Tom Daschle, her seat is by no means safe. Then again, Herseth is wildly popular, with approval ratings in the 70's.

Texas

• Texas's tenth district — Incumbent Michael McCaul (R), who won easily last time due to no Democratic opposition (his opponent, a Libertarian, won less than 20% of the vote), will face a much tougher challenger in that of 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate, Michael Badnarik, and the recent Democratic strategy of challenging all seats means that the Democrats may run a candidate here as well, drawing votes from both McCaul and Badnarik. Some of the Democratic candidates for the nomination include former government engineer and Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum, former newspaperman and real estate agent Sid Smith, poet and business owner Paul Foreman and former emergency room nurse Pat Mynatt. The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast Texas from Austin to Harris County outside Houston.

• Texas's seventeenth district — Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district dramatically and made it more Republican. He was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. He may be safer in 2006, though, as no one with any name identification is running. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch.

• Texas's twenty-second district — Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) has been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55-41 margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. As a result, he was forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. Delay has emerged victorious from the Republican primary with a strong showing of around 65%, signaling that many Republican voters may remain loyal to him in the upcoming general election. In addition, DeLay will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting. Lampson's former district contained much of the area of DeLay's present district. In addition, Republican former Congressman Steve Stockman intends to run as an independent, which could draw support from DeLay. A poll conducted by the Houston Chronicle in January of 2006 has Lampson leading DeLay 30% to 22%, with 11% of voters supporting Independent Candidate Stockman. In the event of a three-way race, only a plurality is required to win the seat.

Utah

• Utah's second district — Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won a close reelection in 2004, his district includes much of heavily Republican southern Utah, but also heavily Democratic Salt Lake City, and he is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) is rumored to be planning a run. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70's. Key to note is that Democrat Jim Matheson won reelection in a vote that gave George W. Bush 66% of the vote and John Kerry less than 33%. Matheson continues to defy the odds, using his name and his moderate stances to win in a district that is overwhelmingly conservative.

Virginia

• Virginia's second district — In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-State Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55-45 against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe. Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam has filed papers to run. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and could quickly put this seat into play.

Washington

• Washington's eighth district — This district, at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area, was considered Republican-leaning before 2004, and the popular former King County Sheriff was expected to win comfortably. Now-incumbent Dave Reichert (R) won it 52% to 46% in 2004. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) is challenging him in 2006.

Wisconsin

• Wisconsin's third district — This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election 56% to 44%, a less than spectacular margin for the 2004 race, against state Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, and the state of Wisconsin favored John Kerry for president. The western edge of the District is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area; fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. So far, the only declared Republican candidate is Paul Nelson, a real estate agent (like Schultz) and former Marine.

Wyoming

• Wyoming, at-large - Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. No one has yet announced they are running against her, however it is rumored that her 2004 opponent, Ted Ladd, may challenge her again. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election.

Current speculation

Current "generic ballot" House of Representatives poll numbers can be found at PollingReport.com.

Current speculation about the 2006 elections naturally runs the gamut; However, there seems to be a consistent theme in the speculation of many pundits on both sides of the aisle: it's expected to be a tough year for the Republicans who currently control the House. Certain factors and incidents are usually cited:

• The dip of President Bush's job approval ratings below 40% according to most respected national polls during the fall and late winter of 2005 .
• Shrinking support for the Iraq war among Americans.
• The Federal Government's response to Hurricane Katrina, which many felt was disorganized and even callous.
• Numerous potential scandals involving high-profile Republicans
  • Former House majority leader Tom DeLay's indictment on charges of violating Texas campaign finance laws.
  • The SEC's insider trading investigation of Senate majority leader Bill Frist's sales of stock in his family's company soon before the share price dropped, despite the stock purportedly having been in a blind trust.
  • The Republican led campaign to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case with upwards of 70% of the public opposing them, including controversial remarks by numerous Republican politicians which many interpreted as threats against judges, and a widespread perception that Tom DeLay and Bill Frist were using the incident to satisfy hardline elements of their base.
  • The Grand Jury indictment of vice-presidential aide Lewis Libby and investigation of senior White House aide Karl Rove's role in the CIA Leak Scandal, and the subsequent admission on trial that vice president Dick Cheney ordered Libby to leak classified information to the press.
  • The recent Jack Abramoff lobbying and corruption scandal and his relations with other Republicans.
  • Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's bribery scandal and subsequent sentencing to the longest prison term of any former Federal Legislator .
  • President Bush's ordering the National Security Agency to wiretap domestic phone calls of persons linked to terrorism without judicial warrants in apparent contradiction of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, and Bush's subsequent proclamation that he has the authority to order the wiretapping independently of federal statute or judicial review, which many legal experts and politicians of both parties have stated is not consistent with the law.
• Early tracking polls specific to the elections pointing voters' favor away from the GOP.
• Democratic wins in both New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial races and the California special election (despite the fact that similar election results in 2001 preceded Republican gains in the 2002 elections).
• Admissions by top leaders in the GOP that they are having difficulty finding candidates to run in the House election and in state legislatures across the country .
• Of the six seats gained by Republicans in 2004, 5 were directly attributed to a controversial 2003 Texas redistricting, which has been challenged by Democrats and now sits before the Supreme Court. If overturned and the lines are redrawn, it is likely the Republicans will suffer losses of at least 3 - 4 of the original five seats in Texas alone.
• Perhaps the single most critical issue in the Republican party's attempt to maintain control of Congress is what many speculate is a growing divide, particularly inflamed in 2005, within their own party. Many conservatives have become disenchanted by the president's moderate positions on illegal immigration, deficit spending, the nomination of Harriet Miers to the United States Supreme Court and allowing a UAE-based company to buy a British company that operates several American ports, while many Moderates and libertarians in the party have similarly become dissatisfied by the growing power of the Religious Right, the government overreach in the case of Terri Schiavo, campaign finance reform measures, aggressive foreign policy measures and opposition by Bush and top GOP leaders to stem cell research expansion. As was the case with moderate-to-paleoconservative Ross Perot in both the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections, these factors may split the voter base of the party either to the Democrats, to third parties, or simply away from the polls in general .
• A recent Rasmussen poll showed that voters slightly prefer Democrats over the president concerning national security. While the poll showed that Democrats were only preferred by a margin of two percent, Democrats have never been able to be competitive on this issue. In 2002 Republicans campaigned almost solely on the issue of national security, and were able to regain control of the Senate. National security was a heavy focus in the Republicans congressional and Presidential campaigns in 2004, a very successful election year for them. Top Republicans, including Karl Rove, have signaled that they would again use their percieved strength in national security in their 2006 campaigns, but in light of Hurricane Katrina and the uproar over the Dubai Ports World deal, Republicans' strength in national security has diminished , at least for the time being .

It should be noted that it's impossible to tell what will happen in the months leading into the election, and there are some factors which favor the Republicans as well:

• There is enough time between now and the elections for many of these negative factors to possibly dissipate, or for positive factors for the Republican party to assume greater importance.
• It is much harder to defeat incumbents than it once was, due to gerrymandering and many other advantages of incumbency.
• The Republican party has in recent years proven to be more effective at fundraising than its Democratic counterpart.
• The Republican political machine has in recent years outmaneuvered the Democratic one, usually dictating the terms of engagement and efficiently exploiting "wedge issues," such as Abortion and Gay Rights though the effectiveness of this in the current environment is debatable. and as public opinion could change in a matter of only a few years.
• In midterm elecions since 1994, Republican turnout has typically been better than Democratic turnout. Since then, opinion polls have typically slightly overstated support for Democrats.

See also

• 2006 Senate election
• 2006 Gubernatorial elections
• 2008 Presidential election